Symax Fintech Daily Market Insights 27.10.23

European natural gas traders are watching for Israel’s next steps in its war against Hamas as the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies. The war has coincided with the start of the heating season, with Europe still in a vulnerable position as it looks for new sources after Russia cut off most pipeline flows last year. “EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks, highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk,” Capital Economics said in a note. BB

OPEC+ members send less oil to U.S., adding to tight supply outlook – U.S. waterborne imports of crude from OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have dropped steadily over the last year, further tightening supplies in the U.S. while supporting other markets including Europe, according to flows data and analysts. Going forward, the level of U.S. crude imports from OPEC and other exporters and U.S. shipments to Europe will probably have a more direct impact on global oil prices thanks to a change made earlier this year to the Brent crude benchmark.

Equinor cuts output guidance as Q3 profit beats forecast – Equinor cut its full-year oil and gas output guidance while posting a bigger-than-expected profit for the third quarter and maintaining its dividend and share buyback levels. The Norwegian energy group’s adjusted earnings before interest and tax for July-September fell to $8.02 billion from a revised $24.5 billion a year earlier, beating the $7.59 billion predicted in a poll of 22 analysts compiled by Equinor.

EU cuts 2023/24 wheat export forecast, increases stocks – The European Commission on Thursday lowered its forecast of European Union exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2023/24 to 31 million metric tons from 32 million projected a month ago. EU soft wheat exports so far in 2023/24 are running 22% below the year-ago level, reflecting stiff early-season competition from Russia.

Bunge lifts 2023 outlook as vegoils fuel profit beat; shares rally – Global crop trader and processor Bunge lifted its 2023 outlook on Thursday after its third-quarter profit topped Wall Street expectations, though earnings were lower year-on-year. Solid crushing results in Brazil, Asia and North America, and good vegetable oil demand helped the world’s largest oilseed processor offset weaker results in Argentina, where a severe drought slashed crop harvests this year.

Indonesia export plan to upset Freeport’s mined copper benchmark – Indonesia’s bid to add value to its mineral exports will dilute copper miner Freeport’s benchmark status for annual contracts as its 2024 sales will fall short of levels needed for a global reference, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said. As one of the world’s largest copper miners, producing two million metric tons annually, treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) Freeport agrees with Chinese smelters has for years been used as a basis for contracts worldwide.

Codelco workers warn against job cuts, do not rule out strike -union head – Workers for Chile’s Codelco will not rule out a strike if the state-owned copper company enacts job cuts to counteract a slump in production, which has reached its lowest point in a quarter century, the head of the company’s union association said. In an interview with Reuters, Amador Pantoja, president of the Federation of Copper Workers (FTC) – which brings together the company’s unions – said Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, should focus on getting structural projects, which have faced numerous delays, into production.

Siemens Energy shares slide 39% after company seeks state guarantees – Siemens Energy shares plunged nearly 40% on Thursday, wiping 3 billion euros off its market value, after the group said it was in talks with the German government about state guarantees following big setbacks at its wind unit. A spokesperson for the German economy ministry also confirmed the talks, describing them as “close and trustworthy”.

Europe’s wind power goal hits new snag: security – Developers like Orsted think governments should take the lead and help provide the billions of dollars needed to protect their infrastructure. But even as North Sea countries alone plan to install enough wind power for more than 100 million homes by 2030, governments are still considering how much they can spend to safeguard such offshore assets.

Ukraine says its Black Sea grain corridor is working – Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov denied on Thursday reports by Ukrainian and British firms that the new Black Sea export corridor had been suspended. “The information regarding the cancellation or unscheduled stoppage of the temporary #Ukrainian_corridor for the movement of civilian vessels from and to the ports of the Big Odesa (region) is false,” Kubrakov said on X, formerly Twitter.

India cuts floor price for basmati rice exports to revive shipments – India has cut the floor price for basmati rice exports to $950 per metric ton from $1,200, a government source told Reuters on Thursday, after farmers and exporters complained it was damaging the trade by stalling shipments. India had imposed a $1,200 per ton minimum export price (MEP) on basmati rice shipments in August to keep a lid on local prices ahead of key state elections.