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Symax Fintech Daily Market Insights 12.09.23

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.

All your global news in one place –
financial, commodity & crypto

CONTENTS

  • Global news headlines
  • My views by Chris Tubby
  • Global news
  • Commodity news
  • Crypto news
  • Symax Fintech services
  • Disclaimer

Global News 

Headlines

  • Ukraine seeks US funding
  • Arm’s initial public offering is in high demand
  • Shares of Country Garden Holdings Co. rallied after Reuters reportedthe distressed Chinese property developer won approval from creditors to extend repayment on six yuan bonds by three years.
  • Apple unveils the latest iPhone.
  • Oracle misses.
  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hails US consumer resilience.
  • The US  dollar fell the most in two months after China and Japan signaled a willingness to take steps that would bolster their currencies
  • North Korean weaponry could allow Russia to prolong  the war in Ukraine, but it probably isn’t advanced enough to alter its course
  • Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co. entered a strategic partnership with private credit heavyweight Blue Owl Capital, committing $1 billion to the firm’s credit platform
  • Kyle Bass said the US banking industry will lose hundreds of billions of dollars from exposure to the office property market
  • Hydrogen is a losing bet for the foreseeable future, according to Barry Norris, CIO of UK hedge fund Argonaut Capital Partners
  • Apple is extendingan agreement to get modem semiconductors from Qualcomm for three more years
  • Australia union said it wants industrial action to continue until it secures a union-negotiated deal at Australian LNG facilities, according to Reuters
  • BRICS now represents 29% of the world’s GDP.

My View

As I mentioned in this weeks YouTube, will they wont they? I believe it’s a close call for the ECB and I expect a split decision on whether they raise rates again on Thursday. With the ECB close if not at the peak after this meeting, its possible the Euro could under more pressure, especially against the dollar. Here a link to a short article I added to our website on the U.S v Europe economy, plus plenty more articles in our press room. https://symaxfintech.com/my-view-on-the-u-s-v-european-economy-11-09-23/

As for the BoE, there could be one last hike before they stop rather than pause. Jobs data is weakening and regular pay growth stayed at 7.8% on a 3m/YoY basis.  However, if you forget the public sector, private sector pay barely increased in level terms between June and July.

Global News

UK jobs data today should point to a further cooling in the labor market. The unemployment rate probably rose to 4.3% in the three months through July, from 4.2% previously. Growth in average weekly earnings is expected to remain unchanged at 8.2%. Germany’s ZEW survey is seen declining this month for both the current situation and expectation gauges. BB

Country Garden won approval from creditors to extend repayment on six yuan bonds, Reuters reported. The distressed Chinese developer had asked to stretch principal payments on eight yuan notes. The stock gained, erasing earlier losses. BB

Arm’s bankers will stop taking orders for its IPO this afternoon as the offering is already 10 times oversubscribed, people familiar said. The order book will be closed a day early but the chip designer still plans to price its shares tomorrow. BB

It’s the most momentous time of the year for Apple. The firm’s annual iPhone reveal offers a chance to impress with the company’s latest model and sets up the crucial holiday selling season. The company’s most significant new product will be the iPhone 15 Pro line, with more minor refreshes coming to the Apple Watch and AirPods. China concerns are also in focus. The event, held in Cupertino, California, is due to start at 10 a.m. local time. BB

Oracle reported slower cloud sales growth, dimming enthusiasm about the company and the global tech sector. The shares declined about 5% in extended US trading. Investors had been increasingly hopeful that a surge in demand for artificial intelligence products, which need significant computing power, would help Oracle gain share in the market. BB

The PBOC has ample policy tools to safeguard the currency and is ready to take action against speculative bets, state media said. The central bank’s yuan fixing reference rate was stronger than 7.2 to the dollar. That reinforces the message that excessive yuan weakness won’t be tolerated, according to Bloomberg’s MLIV blog. BB

Ukraine’s military intelligence service said its forces regained control of several drilling platforms in the Black Sea that were used by Russia for stationing helicopters and radar activity. The country seeks between $12 billion and $14 billion in financial aid from the US next year as budget spending remains high amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren is demanding an investigation into SpaceX after Elon Musk acknowledged he had blocked Ukraine from extending the private Starlink satellite network for an attack on Russian warships near the Crimean coast. BB

Pressures will converge to make the end of the year tougher for consumer discretionary stocks, and even the biggest names may not be completely immune. The sector has been overshadowed by tech-related names this year. Investors in the latest MLIV Pulse survey were divided on what US sector is most vulnerable to the disappearance of excess savings, with retail and autos at 38% each. Yet they are the two best-performing of four S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary subsectors year-to-date.

That’s largely because of exposure to mega-tech stocks. Amazon.com is almost 60% of Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail, while Tesla is ~84% of Automobiles & Components (+75% ytd). Gains in Consumer Services (travel, restaurants) have been much smaller, while Consumer Durables and Apparel (Nike, appliances, home builders) are almost non-existent.

Minimizing the effect of Amazon and Tesla, it’s been a tougher year for consumer discretionary stocks. The equal-weight index is up less than half as much as the capweighted’s 32% rally. The ratio between the equal- and cap-weighted consumer discretionary has dropped to about the lowest since October 2022.

The outlook for discretionary stocks overall has an array of headwinds. Over 70% of respondents agree with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that the excess savings that have helped consumers get through the price spike will run out in the current quarter. Credit conditions have gotten worse and wage growth is slowing. There are signs that the post-pandemic travel resurgence is cooling. Building stocks have wobbled amid higher mortgage rates. BB

Commodities

Despite an 80% drop in gas prices, cutbacks in industrial usage are lingering in a sign that a deeper malaise is setting in. Gas demand across Europe’s industrial landscape this year is projected to remain about 20% below 2021 levels, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. BB

Europe set for light autumn refinery maintenance as fuel markets tighten – European oil refiners are set to have an autumn maintenance season less busy than usual, analysts and traders say, as they try to capture higher profit margins amid low fuel inventories and robust demand for gasoline and diesel. A lower refinery maintenance schedule means Europe will be less reliant on fuel imports at a time when global prices are elevated. It also means that refiners that remain online will have to snap up crude at higher prices and hence might face lower profits. 

Saudi Aramco to supply full oil volumes to N.Asia refiners – Saudi Aramco has notified at least five North Asian buyers that it will supply full contractual volumes of crude oil in October, sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, despite extended voluntary output cuts pledged by the Kingdom. The world’s top oil exporter last week said it would prolong the 1 million barrels per day unilateral cut to the end of the year, driving up benchmark Brent crude above $90 a barrel for the first time this year.

Argentina’s domestic soybean sales soar after federal currency boost – Soybean sales in Argentina totaled almost one million metric tons in the last seven days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Monday, as farmers take advantage of a federal price-boosting initiative. The figure is well above the nearly 240,000 tons of soybeans sold over the last week of August across the South American country, which is one of the world’s largest exporters of processed soy oil and meal.

Russian wheat export prices dip, deal reported below AgMin “floor” – Russian wheat export prices inched lower last week, tracking global benchmarks, as analysts continue to raise crop and export forecasts for this season. The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board delivery in October was $240 per metric ton last week, down from $245 a ton week earlier, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

Share of Russian aluminium in LME-registered warehouses steady at 81% – The share of available aluminium stocks of Russian origin in London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses remained steady in August versus the previous month at 81% of the total while the actual volume declined, data on the exchange’s website showed. Total aluminium stocks available to the market in LME-registered warehouses are referred to as on-warrant. Warrants are title documents conferring ownership of metal. 

Russia’s largest untapped copper deposit starts concentrate production – Copper concentrate production started at Russia’s largest undeveloped copper deposit on Monday following a ceremony overseen by President Vladimir Putin via video link. The long-awaited Udokan project in Russia’s far east is coming on stream at a challenging time. The United States imposed sanctions on its operator – Udokan Copper LLC – in April as part of a wave of restrictions placed on Russia due to its activities in Ukraine. 

Feedgas flows to U.S. Freeport LNG drop sharply -LSEG data – Feedgas flows to Freeport LNG, the second-largest U.S. liquefied natural gas exporter, dropped sharply over the weekend and remained down for the third day in a row on Monday, LSEG data showed. Input levels on the pipeline serving the facility showed feed levels had fallen to 702.9 million cubic feet per day on Sept. 9 and dropped further to 284.3 mcf/day on Sept. 10, down from 1,640.3 mcf/day Sept. 8, LSEG data showed. 

Colombia mulls making Ecopetrol mandatory partner in offshore wind farms – Colombia’s government is considering revising rules to make majority state-run energy company Ecopetrol an obligatory partner in every offshore wind project, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The Ministry of Mines and Energy will consult businesses interested in taking part in Colombia’s first-ever offshore wind auction about the proposal, one of the sources said in recent days, adding that feedback so far has been positive. 

Argentina insists on key river tolls amid criticism from neighbours – Argentina must collect tolls on a crucial waterway, the country’s energy chief said on Monday after meeting with Paraguayan officials, as a multi-nation conflict over fees for ships carrying grains and other exports intensifies. Paraguay, Brazil, Bolivia and Uruguay are urging Argentina to stop applying the tolls, arguing they restrict navigation on South America’s mighty Paraguay-Parana rivers.

South Korea’s NOFI tenders for about 130,000 T feed wheat – Leading South Korean feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. has issued an international tender to purchase up to 130,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is also Tuesday, Sept. 12.

Crypto/Digital

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DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.