Skip links

Symax Fintech Daily Market Insights 10.01.24

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.

All your global news in one place –
financial, commodity & crypto

CONTENTS

  • Global news headlines
  • My views by Chris Tubby
  • Global news
  • Commodity news
  • Crypto news
  • Symax Fintech services
  • Disclaimer

Global News 

Headlines

  • Boeing faces a fresh snag as it moves toward returning grounded jets
  • Nvidia
  • Goldman sees China shares surging 17% in 2024.
  • SEC’s X account is hacked and makes a false post.
  • Xi Jinping’s empty dream city shows limits of his power.
  • Japan’sTopix closed at a 34-year high as the weaker yen and falling bond yields fueled bullish investor sentiment. The Nikkei extended its gains by 2%.
  • China told its banks and insurers to fix any identified loopholesto guard against the risk of ransomware attacks by mid-January in a directive sent at the end of last year.
  • Bitcoin prices swungafter the SEC’s X account was hacked and falsely posted that the long-awaited spot ETFs for the token had been approved. X said the SEC account didn’t have two-factor authentication enabled at the time it was compromised.
  • TSMC’sfourth-quarter revenue beat estimates of a decline, as demand from AI players helped offset sluggish smartphone and laptop chip sales.
  • Xi Jinpingupgraded diplomatic ties with a record number of countries last year. 
  • Jane Streetreaped $7.3 billion of net trading revenue in the first nine months of 2023, and is  expected to generate up to $3.5 billion in the final quarter, people familiar said.
  • Headline wagegrowth for Japanese workers slowed sharply in November, an unwelcome development for the BOJ.
  • Governments from the US, UK and the eurozone will start flooding the market with debt at a near unprecedented clip in coming weeks.
  • More Houthis attacks in the Red Sea
  • The bond rally is overlooking soaring $2 trillion debt problem.
  • China stock catalysts seen lacking as economic woes run deep.
  • Boeing CEO admits ‘our mistake’ after 737 Max 9 door blowout.
  • Google is teaming up with TikTok
  • Fed’s Barr signals emergency loan programwon’t be extended
  • Qualcomm says its push into auto chips is beating sales targets
  • Microsoft’s OpenAI tiesface a potential probe from the European Union
  • shares hit a fresh record
  • Swiss National Bank publishes its preliminary 2023 results.
  • Expected data include euro-area unemployment and Germany’s industrial production.
  • B&M European and Trigano deliver sales updates
  • Games Workshop reports earnings results.
  • United Airlinesfound loose bolts in multiple Boeing 737 Max jets 
  • Raphael Bosticsays inflation is on a path to reaching the FOMC’s 2% target, but that he doesn’t expect a rate cut until the third quarter. 
  • JPMorgan and BlackRock strategists diverge on inflation views.
  • Chinese authorities hint at more easing

My View

Tomorrow should see the markets gain direction when U.S CPI is released. There is still a danger inflation could rise with Houthi attacking ships in the Red Sea, forcing many to avoid it and take the long route to deliver their cargo, adding both time and cost.

Global News

Houthi rebels in Yemen carried out one of their largest missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea late Tuesday, igniting a response from five US and UK warships patrolling the region critical to global trade. Eighteen drones, two anti-ship cruise missiles and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by allied forces, US Central Command said. BB

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index of stocks jumped this week to surpass recent highs, hitting levels last seen way back before, and briefly after, the 1990 bubble burst. The Japanese experience is one of the starkest reminders that equities aren’t a one-way bet over the long term — it can take a long time to recover from extreme peaks. 

The current surge also underscores just how vital it may be for Japan’s stock market that the central bank meets its goal for sustained, long-term inflation of more than 2%. In contrast to say, the US, equities in Tokyo have tended to rise and fall in line with long-term price pressures. The 1990s boom was accompanied by a similar surge in annual inflation rates to the current one. The bust that followed came as deflation took hold. For the Nikkei 225 to make sustained gains from here would seem to require precisely what the Bank of Japan is seeking — moderate, persistent inflation of about 2%. BB

Market participants are rushing to determine just how soon the end of quantitative tightening could start. And the bets are diverging. Strategists at Bank of America and Barclays are angling for a first cut in April, with the runoff wrapping up by mid-summer. Deutsche Bank expects the unwind to start in June, and Morgan Stanley says policymakers want to give markets plenty of time to prepare and won’t act until September.  Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday that inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, offering potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic also noted that inflation has come down more than he expected.  BB

Goldman sees upside for China shares this year, but some aren’t so sure. Japan’s Topix index closed at a 34-year high. And China ordered its banks to review cyber and data security.

  • Goldman is still bullishon Chinese stocks, predicting a 17% and 19% return for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index, respectively, for 2024. It trimmed its index and earnings forecasts from its November projections given the still uncertain economic environment.
  • But not everyone’s convinced. The country’s stock market also suffers from a lack of positive drivers, according to analysts and money managers surveyed by Bloomberg News. BB

BlackRock is warning investors of the risk UK political parties will promise much greater spending in a bid to win this year’s election, potentially sparking a revolt in the bond market. While neither the Conservative nor Labour parties want to put forward policies that could unnerve investors, that may change as the election draws near, said Vivek Paul, BlackRock’s UK chief investment strategist. BB

Google is working with TikTok to stream videos from Android phones to televisions, part of a broader effort to make its devices work together more seamlessly. The new feature will let Android users show clips from ByteDance’s TikTok app on TVs equipped with Google’s Chromecast system. It’s similar to Apple’s AirPlay service, which can share video from an iPhone with an Apple TV set-top box. BB

Commodities

In a sign of Russia’s continued resilience to Western sanctions, the nation is on pace for a second year of record oil drilling. In the first 11 months of 2023, according to industry data, Russia drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100 kilometers. BB

US oil output to touch a record high in 2024, but growth will slow – EIA – U.S. crude production will hit records over the next two years but grow at a slower rate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, as efficiency gains offset a decline in rig activity. The rise in U.S. output comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are cutting their own output in a bid to boost oil prices.

Indian refiners set to ask for extra Saudi oil after sharp price cut – Two Indian state refiners are seeking to boost imports of Saudi crude oil after the kingdom cut the official selling price of its key export grade for February to the lowest in 27 months, company sources said. Indian Oil, the country’s top refiner, and Bharat Petroleum, are looking at lifting an additional 1 million barrels of oil each from Saudi Aramco in February, the sources said.

Argentina rains and mild temperatures to benefit soy, corn – Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean and corn crops will see a boost in January due to rains and moderate temperatures for the Southern Hemisphere summer, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its monthly weather report on Tuesday. Argentina is one of the world’s top exporters of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn. 

Indian coffee exports set to surge thanks to global price rally – India’s coffee exports are likely to rise as much as 10% in 2024 as a rally in global prices prompts European buyers to pay premiums in order to increase purchases from the country, industry officials told Reuters. The South Asian country – famous as a tea producer – is also the world’s eighth-largest coffee grower, mainly churning out the robusta beans used to make instant coffee.

Asian buyers profit from record discounts for near-term LME copper – Oversupply weighing on near-term prices of copper on the London Metal Exchange has created record discounts against longer-dated contracts and an opportunity for Asian buyers to purchase the metal cheaply, traders said. The discount, or contango, for the cash copper over the benchmark three-month contract on the LME hit a record high of $108 a metric ton on Jan. 8, while the discount over the February contract stands at $58 a ton.

Norway parliament votes in favour of seabed mining, as expected – Norway’s parliament on Tuesday voted in favour of allowing Arctic seabed mineral exploration, in line with a deal reached between the government and key opposition parties last month, overcoming objections from environmental campaigners. The decision comes as Norway hopes to become the first country to make deep-sea mining happen on a commercial scale and secure critical minerals and jobs despite concerns over the environmental impact and international calls for a moratorium.

Colombia awards Parex Resources license for geothermal project – Colombia has awarded its first-ever license for developing a geothermal energy project to produce electricity to Canada’s Parex Resources, according to a government resolution seen by Reuters on Tuesday. Colombia has set its sights on developing renewable energy sources – such as solar, wind and geothermal – as part of President Gustavo Petro’s goal to wean the major regional coal and oil producer off its dependence on fossil fuels.

Portugal’s Galp seeks to join formal complaint against US LNG exporter – Portugal oil and gas firm Galp has asked U.S. regulators to allow it to join BP and Shell’s formal complaints against U.S. liquefied natural gas exporter Venture Global LNG, a filing showed on Tuesday. Shell and BP have asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to require Venture Global to disclose plant commissioning data to determine why commercial operation at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass terminal is stalled.

EU 2023/24 soft wheat exports down 11% by Jan 7 – Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2023/24 season in July had reached 15.84 million metric tons by Jan. 7, down 11% from a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday. EU barley exports totalled 3.17 million tons, up 3% from the corresponding period in 2022/23, while EU maize imports were at 9.03 million tons, down 43% from a year earlier.

South Korea’s NOFI buys around 135,000 T corn in tender – Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed purchased about 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. It was purchased in two consignments.

Crypto/Digital

Bitcoin rose above $47,000 for the first time since April 2022 with US regulators seen close to approving the introduction of ETFs that invest directly in the digital asset. BlackRock, Ark and other prospective issuers filed amended forms in what is seen as a final push to offer the investment products more than a decade after the first application was filed. BB

Chart analysis and levels are available as a subscription service.
[email protected] for details

Symax Fintech offers many services to assist with your trading career progression.

  • 1-day courses on a variety of elements around trading
  • 1-week course covering multiple asset classes and includes the opportunity to qualify for a funded $25k account.
  • 1-week courses to really build that understanding of how markets operate, and the trading tools required to benefit from them.
  • A 4-week masterclass that provides a deep dive into all aspects of the markets and trading. Also available as an accredited level 3 diploma masterclass in Financial & Commodity Trading, includes crypto too. May be taken as weekly blocks.
  • Two of our courses, the one-week Financial & Commodity Trading course and our Flexi-Masterclass, now include free entry into a trading challenge with the opportunity to qualify for a funded traded account. We have four diffeent challenges available.
  • Trader Mentoring - our guidance and feedback is invaluable in helping you achieve the next level, time and again.

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.