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Symax Fintech Daily Market Insights 08.01.24

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.

All your global news in one place –
financial, commodity & crypto

CONTENTS

  • Global news headlines
  • My views by Chris Tubby
  • Global news
  • Commodity news
  • Crypto news
  • Symax Fintech services
  • Disclaimer

Global News 

Headlines

  • France and the EU dismissed concerns about China’s new anti-dumping probe into European brandy imports.
  • There are growing signs that Russia’s oil flows might be facing disruptionin the aftermath of a ramp-up in US sanctions targeting traders and shipping companies moving the nation’s petroleum.
  • Germany’s economy may finally start expanding again in 2024, but it’ll struggle to shake off the funkbehind one of its weakest annual performances in a generation
  • The Czechs and Slovaks make more cars per capita than anywhere else in the world. Now, the transition to EVs is putting a vast supply chain in jeopardy.
  • Housing shortages are causing a surgein rents in major European cities and investors are queueing up to pour cash into new homes — only to be thwarted by government policy
  • Quality lapses threaten trust in Boeing
  • Bond bulls double down on Treasuries
  • US lawmakers strike a deal to reduce the risk of government shutdowns.
  • China is pumping money into manufacturing to stave off the effects of its property slump. The move is fueling imbalancesthat are setting the stage for renewed global trade tensions between China and the developed world
  • European stocks are set for a steady start as traders await a deluge of inflation data this week that could offer clues on the path ahead for central banks.
  • Shell delivers a quarterly update.
  • In Asia, it will be the monthly barrage of China data due this week that will steer sentiment.
  • The mounting probability of interest rate cuts from the PBOC provides robust support for China bonds and interest rate swaps
  • As USD/JPY continues to drift higher in line with US yields, this week’s Tokyo CPI may augment that move
  • Britain is more attractive than Europe for manufacturing firms, factory bosses have said, as “a newfound sense of optimism” sweeps the industry. Most manufacturing chiefs believe the UK is now a competitive location for their business
  • Cathay axes flights.

My View

Global News

As the market awaits the US CPI number this week, volatility will dominate, welcoming a series of false starts in both directions.

The US labor market report for December was solid, but it was the average hourly earnings that will temper the bond bulls. Rightly so, as inflation will be the key trigger that prompts the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The disregard for economic figures in the final months of 2023 has shifted, and now, investor appetite appears to hinge more significantly on the incoming data. BB

Asian shares slipped into the red on Monday as Chinese stocks extended their recent retreat, and investors braced for U.S. inflation data and a corporate reporting season where robust results are needed to justify high valuations. Geopolitical tensions were also on the radar as disruptions in the Red Sea raised shipping costs in Europe, while the Israeli conflict with Hamas threatened to spread to Lebanon. There was more promising news from Washington where U.S. congressional leaders agreed on a $1.6 trillion spending deal aimed at averting a partial government shutdown. Early gains were quickly erased and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost another 0.84%, after retreating 2.5% last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was closed for a holiday, but futures were trading at 33,400 compared to Friday’s cash close of 33,377. The index has been underpinned by a drop in the yen as the dollar enjoyed a broad bounce. Chinese blue chips lost 1.1% to near five-year lows, having slid almost 3% last week. The S&P 500 lost 1.5% last week to break a nine-week winning stretch, which had been its longest since 1989. The index’s 24% rally last year means valuations are looking a little stretched so much is riding on the results season. Major banks including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup start the reporting rush on Friday with hopes high for upbeat profits. There are at least four Fed speakers on the docket this week to offer their outlooks, with New York Fed President John Williams likely to be the most influential. Inflation data from China and Tokyo are also due this week, with analysts looking for deflation to ease a touch in China.

US congressional leaders announced a deal on a top-line spending level for the current fiscal year, lessening the chances of a partial government shutdown on Jan. 20. The accord was struck between Democrats and Republicans and sets the cap for the 12 annual spending bills at $1.59 trillion. Appropriations committees in both chambers can begin negotiating detailed spending bills now that they have an overall limit for the amount those bills can spend. BB

Wrongly drilled holes, loose rudder bolts, and now a fuselage section that ejected during flight on a brand-new aircraft, leaving terrified passengers exposed to a gaping hole in the cabin at 16,000 feet (4,900 meters). In just months, Boeing has suffered a series of quality lapses that threaten to erode trust in the manufacturing prowess of the biggest US exporter — notably its 737 Max aircraft, a crucial cash cow. BB

Traders betting on a 2024 bond rally are unfazed by the recent pullback, seeing it as a chance to seize on elevated yields before the Federal Reserve starts driving down interest rates. The dynamic was on display Friday, when bond prices dipped after the Labor Department reported that job growth unexpectedly accelerated last month. But the selloff was curtailed because buyers swooped in as 10-year Treasury yields neared 4.1%, the highest since mid-December. BB

Commodities

Saudi Arabia cuts Feb Arab Light crude price to Asia to 27-month low – Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia on Sunday cut the February price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asian customers to the lowest level in 27 months, a company statement showed, amid competition from rival suppliers and concerns about supply overhang. Saudi Aramco slashed the official selling price (OSP) for February-loading Arab Light to Asia by $2 a barrel from January to $1.50 a barrel over Oman/Dubai quotes, a level last seen for November 2021.

Iran’s oil trade with China stalls as Tehran demands higher prices – China’s oil trade with Iran has stalled as Tehran withholds shipments and demands higher prices from its top client, tightening cheap supply for the world’s biggest crude importer, refinery and trade sources said. The cutback in Iranian oil, which makes up some 10% of China’s crude imports and hit a record in October, could support global prices and squeeze profits at Chinese refiners.

Brazil’s soy exports forecast to rise in January despite possible shortages – Brazilian soy exports will reach at least 1.3 million metric tons in January, a sharp increase from the 940,000 tons exported in the same month last year, according to projections released on Friday by Anec, a grain exporters group. Brazil starts planting its soybeans around September and normally harvests the crop in the first two months of the following year. Dry weather, however, delayed some planting last year and will affect the harvesting of the 2023/2024 crop.

Polish farmers to suspend protest at key Ukraine border crossing – Polish farmers have decided to suspend a protest at the border crossing with Ukraine at Medyka after the government agreed to their demands, interia.pl website reported on Saturday citing the local province governor. Polish truck drivers have been blocking several crossings with Ukraine since Nov. 6, demanding that the European Union reinstate a system whereby Ukrainian companies obtain permits to operate in the bloc.

US sets final food can steel dumping duties on China, Canada, Germany, Korea – The U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday it found that imports of tin mill products from Canada, China, Germany, and South Korea are being dumped onto the U.S. market and imports of tin mill products from China are also being subsidized. The department also found that imports of tin mill products – a shiny silver metal widely used in cans for food, paint, aerosol products and other containers – from the Netherlands, Taiwan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom are not being dumped, it said in a statement.

First Quantum ‘deeply concerned’ about planned mine protest, urges officials to act – Canadian miner First Quantum’s local unit in Panama said on Friday it is “deeply concerned” about protests announced for Jan. 9 to take over its closed copper mine and urged the government to take action to guarantee security at the site. The union representing workers at the company’s Cobre Panama mine warned earlier this week of the plan by the separate SUNTRACS union and an allied group to “invade” the site, in the latest face-off over the mine that provoked nationwide protests last year.

Britain to invest 300 mln pounds in next-generation nuclear fuel programme’ – Britain said it plans to spend 300 million pounds on a new programme to produce advanced nuclear fuel suitable for the next generation of power-generating reactors, seeking to dislodge Russia as the main international supplier. Britain was one of over 20 countries – including the United States, France and South Korea – that recently signed a pledge to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 as part of international efforts to cut climate-damaging carbon emissions.

Asia’s LNG imports hit record, but supply surge keeps price muted – Asia’s imports of liquefied natural gas rose to a record in December, but spot prices remained subdued as shipments from top exporters Australia and the United States also hit all-time highs. Asia, the top buyer of the super-chilled fuel, saw imports reach 26.61 million metric tons in December, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Odesa region ports cargo rises 15 pct in ’23, governor says

Ports in Ukraine’s Black Sea region of Odesa boosted cargo handling in 2023, amid the war with Russia, by 15 percent year-on-year, regional Governor Oleh Kiper said on Friday. Kiper, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the ports processed more than 50 million tonnes of cargo last year.

 River Rhine in Germany reopens to shipping after high water recedes – The river Rhine in Germany has been reopened to shipping after being halted due to a rise in water levels following rain last week, German authorities said on Monday. Rhine river shipping had been stopped around the western city of Koblenz on Friday. But water levels have fallen again to levels permitting ships to operate, the German inland waterways navigation agency said.

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DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.