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Symax Fintech Daily Insights 24.08.23

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.

All your global news in one place –
financial, commodity & crypto

CONTENTS

  • Global news headlines
  • My views by Chris Tubby
  • Global news
  • Commodity news
  • Crypto news
  • Symax Fintech services
  • Disclaimer

Global News 

Headlines

  • Jackson Hole begins while NVDA +6.6% post-earnings boosts the NQ
  • DXY is contained on a 103 handle, whilst EUR/USD and Cable hold on to 1.08 and 1.27 status respectively, USD/JPY is back above 145
  • The yen is too weak and its benefits for Japanese stocks are waning, Japan Exchange Group CEO Hiromi Yamaji said.
  • BRICS latest: Xi Jinping called for fast-tracking a plan to add members. The bloc’s New Development Bank aims to boost local currency lending.
  • Europe’s poor PMI figures loomed over its top economies.
  • Natural gas prices could dampen UK inflation aims.
  • UK firms suffered their first contraction in seven months, with the composite PMI unexpectedly slipping to 47.9, the lowest in 31 months. The pound sank to a one-week low below $1.27.
  • Sweden’s recession may last longer than expected, according to Swedbank. It also forecast that house priceswill fall 15% from a 2022 peak

My View

Europe’s PMI data demonstrates the economy is struggling as inflation and higher rates impact households and businesses.  Read more here: https://symaxfintech.com/our-current-macro-outlook-based-on-recent-pmi-data/

If you rely on up-to-date live news during the day then try this; you will never want to be without it again. https://newsquawk.com?fpr=symax-fintech81  

Global News

Equities rebounded handsomely overnight as Nvidia said surging demand for its AI processors will drive revenue up far faster than expected. There’s still a fair bit of concern that stock markets will struggle to make a sustainable rally into year’s end amid signs that global central bank hikes are having a serious economic impact. The latest batch of purchasing manager indexes came in weaker-than-expected in Europe and the US as the rebound experienced in the first half of this year evaporates. BB

Even if he’s second fiddle to Nvidia, Powell is nevertheless expected to map out the final steps in the central bank’s campaign to finish off inflation. While his address may not contain the same drama as keynotes in recent years, the speech at the Fed’s annual meeting of global central bankers in Wyoming comes as policymakers enter what he’s called the most difficult stage of the inflation fight: knowing when to stop. BB

According to Ralph Schlosstein, chairman emeritus at Evercore ISI, the party is over on Wall Street. The Fed’s rate-hike campaign has brought an end to a “golden age of investing,”’ he says. Wall Street traders may want to “rethink how they allocate their portfolios.”  BB

Nvidia dispelled concerns that its chip production wouldn’t be able to keep up with demand, adding to the good news it delivered in quarterly earnings that sent shares higher in extended trading. But the chipmaker warned that any stricter rules on exports to China will hurt US companies in the long term. BB

China’s potential financial crisis poses a greater threat to Xi Jinping’s hold on power than slowing economic growth, Minxin Pei writes. That’s why he’s moving more aggressively to address debt issues than to add stimulus. Beijing’s record points to a “bit of everything” approach, including monetization that will add downward pressure on the yuan. BB

Senior doctors in England start a two-day walkout at 7 a.m. today. And about 20,000 RMT rail workers will strike beginning in the early hours of Saturday, affecting 14 train operators from just after midnight. That action comes at the beginning of a three-day weekend and may disrupt holiday plans. BB

President Xi Jinping called on the BRICS bloc of emerging markets to fasttrack a plan to expand its membership at a summit in South Africa. Xi has used the annual gathering of emerging market powers — which includes Russia, South Africa and Brazil — to call for the bloc’s expansion in a bid to counter G-7 and challenge the US-led world order. India was initially wary of the group becoming a mouthpiece for China, but leader Narendra Modi has since said he supports expansion. Meanwhile, the mystery of why Xi Jinping skipped a speech at the summit deepened when China’s foreign ministry spokesman told reporters he had delivered it. BB

Boeing confirmed that its largest supplier improperly drilled holes in a component of the 737 Max. The FDA said the issue isn’t a threat to safety but it nevertheless may derail delivery targets for the planemaker’s cash-cow jet. The shares fell postmarket. BB

Europe’s private-sector activity further contracted in a sign of pain to come for national economies, fueling bets the ECB will need to pause its tightening campaign.

  • The euro-area compositePMI fell to 47 in August, further below the 50 threshold indicating growth, and services activity shrank for the first time since the end of 2022.
  • Alarm bellsare also ringing that output from the bloc will shrink this quarter, as Germany’s numbers hit a three-year low and France’s figures remained under the growth threshold.
  • Traders now price a 40% chance of a quarter-point ECB hike next month, down from 55% before the release. BB

India has become the first country to land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole after Russia’s failed attempt at the weekend. A rover on board Chandrayaan-3 will analyze the chemical makeup of the moon’s surface and search for water. India is the second country, along with China, to have an operating moon rover and just the fourth nation to reach the moon. The US plans to send the first humans to explore the area near the south pole in 2025, in a mission called Artemis III, while China is planning to build a research station near the region and place astronauts on the moon by 2030. Japan has an uncrewed mission launch on Aug. 26. BB

Wednesday night is the first debate of the 2024 US presidential campaign. The Republicans gathered will be watched not only for how they address the issues but how they talk about the one candidate not appearing with them in Milwaukee. The missing man is of course Donald Trump, who refused to face his rivals. On Thursday, the twice-impeached former president will appear in Atlanta, where he is to be arrested on state charges of masterminding a sprawling racketeering conspiracy, one of four felony indictments he currently faces.  BB

BofA’s trading desks have been quietly gaining ground against their main competitors since Jim DeMare took over the global markets division. The unit’s gained almost six percentage points of market share on JPMorgan, and rivals say the firm suddenly seems more in the game. BB

Argentines are dollarizing the economy on their own, demanding pay in the greenback one transaction and contract at a time. From tech and finance jobs to Airbnb rentals, the peso appears to be facing a classic breakdown of a fiat currency as inflation soars above 100%.  BB

Commodities

Ofgem has been accused of allowing energy companies to ramp up “unfair” charges after analysts warned that more than seven million households face higher heating bills this winter. Increases in standing charges and the loss of government subsidies compared to last year mean that millions of households that use relatively little gas and electricity will be worse off this year than last, the Resolution Foundation said. – Telegraph

Saudi Arabia will likely roll over 1 mln bpd cut into October, analysts say – Saudi Arabia will likely roll over a voluntary oil cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month into October, five analysts said, amid uncertainty about supplies and as the kingdom targets drawing down global inventories further. OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, agreed a broad deal in early June to curtail supplies until the end of 2024. 

Washington drafts proposal for Venezuela’s oil sanction easing – U.S. officials are drafting a proposal that would ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, allowing more companies and countries to import its crude oil, if the South American nation moves toward a free and fair presidential election, according to five people with knowledge of the plans. Washington has been trying to encourage negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro and the political opposition over elections in Venezuela and other demands. Sanctions were imposed following Maduro’s 2018 reelection, which many Western nations considered a sham. 

India set to ban sugar exports for first time in 7 years – India is expected to ban mills from exporting sugar in the next season beginning October, halting shipments for the first time in seven years, as a lack of rain has cut cane yields, three government sources said. India’s absence from the world market would be likely to increase benchmark prices in New York and London that are already trading around multi-year highs, triggering fears of further inflation on global food markets.

Argentina grains exchange sees dry start to 2023/24 corn season – Argentina’s farmlands planted with corn should reach an estimated 7.3 million hectares for the 2023/24 cycle, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a pre-season report on Wednesday, though dry conditions could delay the crop’s sowing. Farmers are expected to start planting corn in September. The projected planting area would be 2.8% times larger than the area planted in the previous campaign, which was hit hard by a historic drought across Argentina’s agricultural heartlands.

Australia sees strong demand for critical minerals over next 40 years – Australia’s economy is well-placed to benefit from strong demand for critical minerals with the global appetite expected to rise by 350% by 2040, official forecasts showed on Wednesday, as many big economies rush to hit net zero emission targets by 2050. Australia supplies around half of the world’s lithium and has vast reserves of the nickel, zinc and bauxite required for the production of clean energy technology in electric vehicles and batteries. 

Indonesia’s nickel prices surge amid probe into mining approvals – Prices of nickel ore in top global producer Indonesia have surged about 10% in recent weeks, say local buyers, after an investigation into mining quotas disrupted production of the metal used in stainless steel and batteries. Indonesia’s Attorney General Office (AGO) in June launched a probe into illegal mining, leading to the arrest of a top government official earlier this month and the suspension of operations at a key mining site owned by state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam).

Woodside, unions reach deal at Australian LNG facility, workers meet to ratify – Woodside Energy on Thursday reached an in-principle agreement with unions at Australia’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, potentially averting a disruption to supplies from the world’s biggest exporter of the super-chilled fuel. Both Woodside and the union alliance representing workers at the offshore platforms of its North West Shelf facility announced the initial deal in separate statements after a round of talks both sides deemed positive.

EU to open third round of joint gas buying in September – The European Union will open its third round of joint gas buying next month, as the bloc moves to secure supplies in preparation for another winter with scarce Russian gas. The EU started collectively buying gas this year, as part of its response to Russia slashing gas deliveries in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia hits grain facilities at Ukrainian Danube River port – Russian drones struck Ukrainian grain facilities at the Danube River port of Izmail overnight in what a senior official said on Wednesday was a systematic attempt by Moscow to prevent Kyiv exporting grain to the world. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the port’s export capacity had been reduced by 15% and that 13,000 metric tons of grain had been destroyed.

Ukraine says it has exported 3.83 mln T grain so far in 2023/24 – Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 3.83 million metric tons so far in the 2023/24 July-June season, Agriculture Ministry data showed on Wednesday. The ministry gave no comparative figures for the same period a year earlier, but said shipments stood at 3.3 million tons as of Aug. 25, 2022.

Crypto/Digital

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DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.