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Symax Fintech Daily Insights 11.09.23

DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.

All your global news in one place –
financial, commodity & crypto

CONTENTS

  • Global news headlines
  • My views by Chris Tubby
  • Global news
  • Commodity news
  • Crypto news
  • Symax Fintech services
  • Disclaimer

Global News 

Headlines

  • Janet Yellen sounds a note of optimism about a US soft landing.
  • Morocco races to rescue survivors of a major earthquake.
  • China objected to the US hosting the 2026 summit, and a spy-agency-tied think tank said New Delhi had “sabotaged” this meeting by pushing its own agenda.
  • Rishi Sunak told Li Qiang he had “significant concerns” about Chinese interference, hours after news of the arrests of two men in the UK for alleged spying.
  • Giorgia Meloni privately signaled to China’s premier that Italy plans to exit the Belt and Road initiative.
  • The US announced a deal with India, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries to develop a regional rail and maritime network.
  • Apple bets on titanium and cameras to nudge buyers to pricier iPhones.
  • Tesla and China risk leaving VW on a road to nowhere: Big Take
  • China’s Gen Z is trying to leisure-shop its way out of jobless blues.
  • Trudeau is stuck in India thanks to a faulty aircraft.
  • Short sellers reap $13 billion on gaps in winner-takes-all market
  • Ukraine probably has just 30 to 45 daysof “fighting weather” left for its counteroffensive this year before conditions worsen

My View

Global News

Janet Yellen is increasingly confident that the US can achieve a soft landing. But even as recession bets fade, Wall Street remains vulnerable to any signs the US economy is running too hot. Fears of a potential dive in stocks have made hedging against a rout more expensive, and bond traders have ratcheted up bets the Fed isn’t done hiking just yet. BB

The ECB is debating another quarter-point interest-rate hike this week in the most suspenseful decision since it started a tightening cycle more than a year ago. Economists and markets are divided, with traders pricing a 40% chance of a hike. Hedge funds are turning ever more negative on the euro, which has already dropped nearly 5% since mid-July in the longest streak of weekly losses since 2014. BB

The yen extended gains after the BOJ said it will offer loans to banks to rein in the bond market selloff. Ten-year JGB yields surged toward a decade high after Kazuo Ueda signaled the BOJ may soon decide on changes to its negative interest rate policy. Meanwhile, China’s onshore yuan extended gains after authorities stepped up verbal warnings, vowing to take resolute action against one-way bets against the currency. BB

Giorgia Meloni privately told China’s Li that Italy is planning to exit Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has become a test of her nation’s relations with the US. Publicly, the Italian prime minister insisted a decision hasn’t been made yet.BB

Sinking Feeling | Germany’s industrial malaise is probably acute enough to have dragged the economy back into a contraction during the current quarter, forecasters predict. A monthly survey by Bloomberg shows gross domestic product is now anticipated to fall 0.1% in the three months through September.

Germany’s stop-start economic motor may be in reverse again.

  • A monthly surveyby Bloomberg shows gross domestic product is now anticipated to fall 0.1% in the three months through September before retracing that deterioration toward year-end. Economists previously saw stagnation
  • Such an outcome would further highlight how the tables have turned. The country that was formerly Europe’s motor now faces faltering growth, as it suffers from the headwinds of poor demand in China and a lingering energy crisis. BB

The G-20 called for more efforts to support global growth, alleviate poverty and indebtedness, and to fight climate change. The US, UK and Germany praised the India-brokered communique, making the summit a diplomatic success for Narendra Modi despite Xi Jinping’s absence. Kyiv criticized the document’s lack of outright condemnation of Russia’s invasion. BB

Moroccan authorities raced to rescue survivors after the country’s most powerful earthquake in about 120 years killed more than 2,000 people. Efforts were complicated by the remote location of the epicenter. King Mohammed VI has yet to accept offers of assistance from the US, France, Turkey, Ukraine and others. BB

Ukraine is prepared to file a complaint at the WTO if Poland introduces a unilateral ban on Ukrainian grain, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka told us. Kyiv sees Warsaw’s position as having been driven by domestic politics or as “simply a mistake,” he said. BB

Shipping Corridor | The US signed a deal with India, Middle Eastern countries and the EU aimed at connecting them via a network of railways and sea routes — and competing with China’s influence in the region. The plan is to link Middle Eastern countries by rail and to India through shipping lanes from ports in the region, extending on to eastern Europe. BB

Commodities

Oil cut extension raises risk of Saudi economic contraction this year – Saudi Arabia faces the risk of an economic contraction this year following its decision to extend crude production cuts, highlighting its still heavy reliance on oil as reforms to diversify are slow moving. Riyadh says it aims to stabilise the oil market by extending a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. Its announcement on Tuesday sent oil prices above $90 for the first time this year, but they are below average prices of around $100 a barrel last year in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia to return to grain deal once all Moscow’s conditions met, Lavrov says – Russia will return to the Black Sea grain deal ‘the same day’ as Moscow’s conditions for export of its own grain and fertilisers to the global markets are met, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Sunday. Russia quit the deal in July, a year after it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, complaining that its own food and fertiliser exports faced obstacles and that insufficient Ukrainian grain was going to countries in need.

Philippine ministers propose cut in rice tariffs to curb retail prices – The Philippines’ finance ministry has recommended a series of measures, including a cut in tariffs on imported rice, to curb surging retail prices that are fuelling inflation, its secretary said. The ministries of finance and economic planning are proposing a reduction in the 35% rice import tariff rates to between zero and 10%, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno told reporters.

First Quantum reaches deal with Panama copper mine union, avoids strike – The Panamanian unit of Canada’s First Quantum Minerals and a workers union at the company’s key copper mine in Panama said on Saturday they had reached an agreement, avoiding a planned strike over profit sharing and wage increases. The worker’s union, Utramipa, had threatened on Thursday to stop work on Saturday, alleging an impasse in negotiation with the directors of Minera Panama, the miner’s local unit. The company indicated on Friday that it was negotiating with workers.

Tantalex secures Glencore’s backing for Congo lithium project – Tantalex Lithium, a Canadian junior miner that is aiming to produce lithium from the Democratic Republic of Congo, said on Friday its tailings project has secured the backing of Glencore. The Swiss miner and trader will pay a staggered $5 million to Tantalex as part of the marketing off-take agreement and has agreed to finance a third of the capital requirements for the DRC project, if it meets its conditions, Tantalex said in a statement. 

Chevron gambles on untested laws to halt Australia LNG strike action – Chevron Australia no longer expects to reach a deal with unions and will instead pursue an untested legal strategy to stop industrial action at its Gorgon and Wheatstone liquefied natural gas facilities as unions prepare for full scale strikes. Hundreds of workers at the facilities, which account for over 5% of global supply, started short strikes on Friday after five days of last-minute negotiations broke down without a deal. Unions have said they will escalate to two weeks of 24-hour strikes from Thursday.

Europe’s gas storage must peak early this autumn – Europe’s natural gas inventories are at a record high for the time of year, but storage additions have slowed sharply, significantly reducing the risk storage sites will become full before the main winter heating season arrives. Inventories across the European Union and the United Kingdom had climbed to 1,071 terawatt hours by Sep. 6, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, Sep. 8).

Russia labels global transport union ITF ‘undesirable’ organization – Russia has designated the International Transport Workers’ Federation as an “undesirable” organisation in a step the union said will have significant ramifications for 1.6 million Russian members, the ITF said on Friday. The label “undesirable” has been applied to dozens of foreign groups since Moscow began using the classification in 2015, and effectively bans an organisation outright. 

UK seeks feedback for possible ultra-long gilt tender – The United Kingdom Debt Management Office said it was considering holding a tender of a gilt with a maturity of more than 40 years on Sept. 27, and was seeking market feedback. The DMO said it had received requests from some bond dealers and investors for such a sale, and wanted to gauge if there was broader appetite.

Crypto/Digital

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DISCLAIMER

Trading involves the risk of loss of capital and is not suitable for everyone. As many companies provide high leverage you should be aware you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest. Previous performance is no guarantee of future performance. You should carefully consider the inherent risks, your financial situation, your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should ONLY risk capital you are prepared and can afford to lose. It is imperative you should seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Main news source – Bloomberg, and ING, although every effort has been taken to ensure that all content included is correct, we cannot guarantee its accuracy.